Chris (@Chris10Pricey) takes a detailed look at Cymru’s Euro 2024 qualifying group, and dissects the hurdles Page’s boys will face. For a deep dive into the other groups, head here.
Euro Qualifying Group D
Croatia, Wales, Turkey, Armenia, Latvia
And so, what are our chances of making our 3rd Euros in a row? With the delayed 2020 edition and the euphoria of our first World Cup campaign in many a generation, these Euros have rolled around quickly.
With how qualifying works now, it no longer feels like a marathon, but a straight sprint. 8 games in less than 9 months, is a far cry from the 2-year cycle and international football is much better for it. However, it does create a lot of jeopardy and a few poor results can pretty much derail any qualification hopes. With everything that has happened since that disappointing exit in November, and the make-up of the group, this feels like a scrap to reach the finals.
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Life after Gareth (and half the cast!)
The big news over the last few months has been Gareth Bale’s retirement and rightly so. It can never be underestimated the impact he has had on us not just in a footballing way, but as a nation on the world stage. The retirement of our GOAT has heralded a new age for Welsh football. So many times, the talisman, we can no longer call on Bale to pull out the big performances. Couple this, with many of the supporting cast calling it a day, Allen, Gunter, Williams et al, will be greatly missed.
As sad as it is to watch the break-up of probably our most golden of generations, it does feel that the last World Cup was a bridge too far, a cycle too many for some. However, there are shoots of encouragement and in the last few years, evidence of a life after all those retirements. Wales have blooded through younger members of the squad, and this was seen in our Nations League performances. The timing of these was unfortunate, the results may have been disappointing, but the performances were deeply encouraging.
The youngsters stepped up, none more so than Brennan Johnson (as a Forest fan, I couldn’t not mention him) and a style of play that has made us competitive for the best part of a decade. Couple this with Rambo and Davies choosing to carry on, gives us hope that they and a new young cast can carry on the great work of those that went before.
This is not the Autobahn route to Germany! The Opposition
However, it’s not as straight forward as ‘having a good team will get us qualified’. Looking at our group, the word tricky is an understatement. Each opponent provides a unique challenge and in 8 games, every point will prove crucial.
As top seeds, Croatia continue to defy father time. After their raft of retirements and coming so close in 2018, you felt it was inevitable that they would never be able to replicate those highs. Since then, they backed up that incredible performance by coming 3rd at last year’s WC and reaching the Nations League Finals.
We last met Croatia in qualification for the last Euros and the point we got against them at home proved to be the difference, outlining how crucial 1 point can be. Their squad is steeped in talent, all over the pitch and to make it even more difficult, Luka Modric has decided to carry on! There is a staggering number of caps, big game experience and big-name players throughout the team. They are aging, but we seem to say this all the time! You have to fancy them to top the group again.
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Turkey will feel they have underperformed in recent years. Looking through their squad, there is a wealth of talent and experience. They were even tipped as outsiders for the tournament in 2020, but one of our most complete performances of recent years pretty much knocked them out in Baku. They then missed out on the World Cup, losing to Portugal in the play-offs. They were promoted comfortably out of League C and even had time to lose to the Faroe Islands. They have recognisable players throughout the side and will be banking on their vociferous home support to be the difference.
Their neighbours Armenia would like nothing more to stop them qualifying. However, losing their talisman Mkhitaryan last year to retirement is a big blow. Their performance in the Nations League and subsequent relegation highlighted their lack of quality. There is a lot of experience in their side, but no recognisable names. You feel they will need to play above themselves to get anywhere in the group, but if there are 2 games, they could raise their game for, it would be their games against Turkey. These could be as vital to our qualification as our own games.
Latvia have come on leaps and bounds in the last few years since their dreadful Euro 2020 Qualifying campaign, and this was shown in their promotion from League C. In WC Qualifying, they were competitive in every game, including a stunning 3-3 draw in Turkey and a narrow defeat to the Netherlands. Most of their players are domestically based. You feel they will be competitive again, but Wales will need points against them, and hope others come unstuck.
The Verdict – Will we make it?
As I said previously the margin for error is minimal. In 8 games and only 24 points to play for every point is vital. It goes without saying home form will be crucial and statistically we will need at least 8 points at home to give us a chance, but ideally 10. And then it’s all about what we can pick up away, can we go to the difficult outposts of Turkey and Armenia and get something. The advantage is that most of the teams feel competitive and could take points off each other, which would bring the points total down.
The fixture list has probably given us more hope. Despite the difficult start in Croatia, back-to-back home games against Latvia and Armenia could put us in a great position before going to Turkey. One game in September and October could be a blessing, as we can throw everything at those 2 qualifiers. Away to Armenia in our penultimate fixture, could set the scene for a winner take all clash at the CCS against Turkey. Personally, if someone offered me that now, I would take it. This group is going to come down to fine margins and if we are still in it on the final matchday, I take that as a win.
If we don’t make it, we may even be looking at finding the back door. Looking at the other groups, most of the top seeds will qualify and because of our Nations League standings, we need as many of them to qualify as possible. We are ranked 16th out of 16 and with Germany already qualified, if 11 other League A teams qualify than we would get a place. It could be difficult as our path could contain 3 other League A sides, or in a best-case scenario, 3 teams from League D.
However we get there, I’m praying we do, as after the last few years, Germany 2024 is going to be a party not to be missed.
For a deep dive into the other groups, head here.