Of course The Red Wall has its eyes firmly on Group D, but Chris (@Chris10Pricey) has taken a deep dive into all the other groups. See if you agree with his preview and predictions.
With the change in qualifying style and the introduction of the Nations League, qualification now seems like a sprint rather than a marathon. With the hosts, Germany already qualified, there are 23 places available. 20 of them will come directly from 1st and 2nd place in each of the qualifying groups and 3 play-off places based on Nations League performances. In this piece, we look at the contenders and likely outcomes of who will be in the finals draw come December and hopefully join Wales in the German Biergartens.
Group A: Spain, Scotland, Norway, Georgia, Cyprus
The race for 2nd place in this group might be the most fascinating of all the qualifiers. Scotland will feel they have a fighting chance of building on their 2020 qualification and after coming so close in World Cup qualifying. However, they face a real fight from Norway and Georgia, both relying on some freakish forwards, who might be enough to fire them to qualification. Norway will be banking on Erling Haaland’s goals and with a relatively young squad and a talented supporting cast, I fancy them to qualify for the first time since 2000.
Embed from Getty ImagesSimilarly, Georgia will be hoping Khvicha Kvaratskhelia continues his stunning form for Napoli to give them a fighting chance of qualifying, but they might have to rely on their already confirmed play-off place. We’re unlikely to see Cyprus put up much of a fight, with most of their players domestically based.
Predicted Qualifiers: Spain and Norway
Group B: Netherlands, France, Republic of Ireland, Greece, Gibraltar
As competitive as Group A is, this is one of those groups that makes a mockery of qualifying groups. There is little more to say than Netherlands and France will qualify and probably without dropping any points apart from against each other. Stephen Kenny’s Ireland may have picked up a little bit, but it will nowhere be enough to qualify.
Embed from Getty ImagesGreece will be pinning all their hopes on their already qualified play off place and expect Gibraltar to take several pastings throughout, although they might beat us in October, when we’ve got eyes on other things!
Predicted Qualifiers: France and Netherlands
Group C: Italy, England, Ukraine, North Macedonia, Malta
Surely these teams should just step aside and let Ukraine qualify? Funny there is no talk of that as it’s not us or Scotland involved. Seriously though, it would be a fairy tale for them to qualify and would be great for them to get there, unfortunately this is a difficult draw for them. Having missed out on qualifying for the World Cup, against group opponents North Macedonia, you must fancy Italy to get back and defend their crown (although don’t get me started on the winners automatically qualifying debate!)
Embed from Getty ImagesFor our nearest and dearest, the knives may be out for Southgate, but you would still expect them to qualify. You can expect Ukraine and North Macedonia to be competitive, but ultimately fall short against the big 2 and Malta to be the whipping boys of the group.
Predicted Qualifiers: Italy and England
Group D: Croatia, Wales, Turkey, Armenia, Latvia
For a detailed look at Cymru’s group, head here.
Group E: Poland, Czechia, Albania, Faroe Islands, Moldova
So are Poland going to kick all the other teams until they let them qualify? An established side, the politest way of putting it is they are efficient, they get results as was seen in that final Nations League game against us. With that in mind, I would expect them to qualify comfortably from this group, and for many of the squad this might be their last go at it.
Embed from Getty ImagesAfter making the quarters at Euro 2020, the Czechs had a poor 2022 and will need to pick up again if they expect to qualify. We saw them last March, and our young side that night were more than competitive against them. A lot of emphasis lands on their West Ham lads, and they will look to them again to lead them to qualification. The advantage both Poland and Czechia have is, that the other 3 teams are very much of a muchness. There are few recognisable names and some poor form between them, it is unlikely they will trouble either of them.
Predicted Qualifiers: Poland and Czechia
Group F: Belgium, Austria, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Estonia
It makes a change we are be not in this group. Perennial friends/bogey team Belgium have been drawn in a group they should win. Their golden generation may have failed to deliver, but the amount of talent in the squad should see them safely qualify, and probably make the last 8 of the main tournament.
Embed from Getty ImagesAfter being desperately unlucky against Italy in Euro 2020 and since losing to us in the WC qualifier, Austria’s form fell off a cliff and despite 2 impressive wins in Croatia and at home to Italy at the end of the year, they do seem suspect. With an aging squad and no real striker to speak of, this might be one step to far for them. Conversely, Sweden have gone back to the future and added 41 year old Zlatan to give them extra firepower, and with him and Isak and Kulusevski up front, that might be the difference and get them 2nd place in the group. As with some of the other groups, you can expect Azerbaijan and Estonia to put up a fight, but ultimately be beaten comfortably by the other 3.
Predicted Qualifiers: Belgium and Sweden
Group G: Hungary, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Lithuania
Immediately your eyes are drawn to Serbia and Montenegro, who used to play together as recent as 2006. They have met previously in 2018, both games settled by Mitrovic and again that fire power with him and Vlahovic should be enough to see them qualify comfortably. Realistically, Serbia have the better team and should win both games, but you can’t underestimate how much Montenegro would love to stop them and if they do, that could open up the path to qualification. If Serbia were to falter, they do have the back up of a play-off place.
Embed from Getty ImagesElsewhere, the great days of Hungarian football seem to be back. After almost making it out of that ridiculous group at Euro 2020, they backed that up with humiliating England and winning in Germany. They can no longer be seen as a team that should be beaten, like when we went there in Euro 2020 qualifying and their top seed status backs that up. Bulgaria and Lithuania make up the rest of the group, and both have had a difficult few years, lots of defeats and that is unlikely to change in this group.
Predicted Qualifiers: Hungary and Serbia
Group H: Denmark, Finland, Slovenia, Kazakhstan, Northern Ireland, San Marino
After the dramatic nature of their last Euro’s adventure, Denmark will be hoping for a less eventful but still as exciting campaign. I really like Denmark and their performance in the Nations League, with back to back wins over France prove they still have it, but their disappointing display at the World Cup might prove to be the beginning of the end for them. Key players are ageing, and they will need some of their youngsters to back them up, but if they could only find a quality striker, they would be dangerous again. They should still qualify comfortably here.
Embed from Getty ImagesLooking at the other teams, my attention is drawn to Kazakhstan. They had a superb Nations League, which has already secured them a play-off place. No-one will fancy the trip there and with most of their team home based and exposed to European football more regularly, this might be the upset qualifier. Northern Ireland will be hoping to build on their superb draw with Italy in WC Qualifying, but their form is so inconsistent, it’s hard to see them qualifying, But if they can make Windsor Park a fortress, that might be the difference for them. Finland will look to their experienced players in Hradecky keeping the goals out and Pukki to get them enough goals to put themselves in the qualifying mix. Defensively resolute Slovenia will be tough for most, but a lack of goals may prove to be their downfall. And poor San Marino, one day it will happen for them. In short, this group looks to be the most competitive of the lot, as each team has it’s downfalls and home form will definitely be key here.
Predicted Qualifiers: Denmark and Kazakhstan
Group I: Switzerland, Israel, Romania, Kosovo, Belarus, Andorra
Vastly experienced and a functional team, Switzerland are likely to qualify from this group, mainly due to their ability to consistently pick up points where and when needed. Their WC exit to Portugal was an anomaly to their impressive group stage results, where they found a way to win. Israel already have a play-off place confirmed and will be looking to qualify for their first ever tournament. Unfortunately, their lack of goals is a worry, and this could ultimately be their undoing. Romania will be hoping to build on their impressive WC qualifying, where they narrowly missed out on a play-off place in a difficult group.
Embed from Getty ImagesLots of their players play in Italy and will be hoping familiarity may help them and they did hammer Bosnia in September. Kosovo will be hoping to build on a promising Nations League performance and gain experience as their squad is young and low in caps although it would be one of the great stories if they could qualify for a major tournament. Although Belarus caused us problems in qualifying, that seems to be a rare occurrence and they and Andorra will surely be whipping boys in this group.
Predicted Qualifiers: Switzerland and Romania
Group J: Portugal, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iceland, Luxembourg, Slovakia, Liechtenstein
This can be seen as a group of has-beens, and not just for a certain CR7 who sulked his way to Saudi after the World Cup. He is back to lead his Portugal side and will likely pick up an incredible 200th cap during this qualifying campaign. Whatever the argument, he is still one of the greatest ever and he will be desperate to lead his team to one last success, especially bearing in mind how they went out of the World Cup. There is a depth of talent in their squad to back this up and they will be contenders for the whole tournament and should qualify comfortably.
Embed from Getty ImagesBehind Portugal, Bosnia already have the play-off place as back up but will be hoping to reach their first Euros automatically. Their squad is made up of well-known players across Europe and their form led them to win their Nations League comfortably, so rightly they start as favourites. Since their incredible run in 2016 and WC qualification in 2018, Iceland are not the team they were and that was showcased in their disastrous WC 2022 qualifying campaign. There is not a player with more than 20 caps in their squad and they will be hoping to build experience during this campaign. Similarly, Slovakia are not the team they once were. So far have they fallen, they were nearly relegated from Nations League C. An aging squad and a lack of goals mean this is likely to be a struggle to qualify. Luxembourg may fancy their chances to pick up some wins in this group based off their recent form, but Liechtenstein look like they will take a few hammerings.
Predicted Qualifiers: Portugal and Bosnia and Herzegovina