Group D Final Matchday Preview
Be honest, could you see us in this position back in June? Chris Price @chris10pricey looks at the downs and ups of Cymru’s group and the needs for the approaching international window,
With 2 games to go, Wales currently sit 2nd in Group D and crucially own the tiebreaker with Croatia after a stunning victory in Cardiff in October. God bless head-to-head tie breakers! It wasn’t just the win against Croatia, we’ve beaten good, well ranked sides before, but the manner of the performance which was hugely impressive and gave cause for optimism ahead of a tricky run in.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe build-up to the game was shrouded in will they, won’t they, pressure on Page and a squad seen to be underdelivering after a disastrous June. Harry Wilson said in his post-match that they had heard the pre-match noise, that they were there for the gaffer and the performance certainly showed it. Wales won the game 2-1, but in truth, it should have been a lot more comfortable such was the standard of the performance.
It was arguably Page’s best performance as manager, certainly our best since beating Turkey at Euro 2020/1. Although qualification for the World Cup was bigger, this was a better team performance. For all the criticism of Page, he got it spot on and should be applauded, but he will need to back that up in the 2 upcoming, tricky fixtures.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe maths is simple, 2 wins and Wales are there. They could drop points and still get there, depending on Croatia’s results, but you must think they will win both their remaining games against Latvia and Armenia. And then, there will be a bizarre scenario, where Wales will top the group even though Turkey have already qualified. Wales and Croatia will all end up on 16 points and Wales would be top of the mini league created.
Embed from Getty ImagesAfter a good start, the late equaliser in Croatia and a workman like win against Latvia, it’s hard to think that this has all happened after how we were all feeling back in June. After the kamikaze performance at home to Armenia, where we went gung-ho for the win and got caught out by an excellent Armenian performance, it was hard to see us qualifying.
Then 3 days later, when we were comfortably beaten in Turkey, Germany might as well have been Baku for most of us as dreams of a proper tournament seemed to be slipping through our fingers.
It seemed like dark clouds and darker days were returning. But credit where it is due, Wales and Page picked themselves up off the canvas, heard the noise being created and battled back. They played well in Riga and won 2-0, when really it could have been 5 or 6, but that did little to quell the noise around Page and his squad. However, some favourable results, with Armenia losing in Latvia and Turkey winning in Croatia, suddenly Wales could see a door creaking open. And they smashed that door open with that performance in Cardiff.
Embed from Getty ImagesNow, Wales must back it up. They go to Armenia on Saturday for an early kick-off in Yerevan. This is the acid test. If Wales are to get to Germany, they will need a similar performance as the one against Croatia. It’s a tricky test and after what happened in June, we should be all too aware of the quality the opposition posses. Wales will need to be patient and take their chances in what is likely to be a tense and tetchy affair. Armenia do have an outside chance of qualifying but would have to beat us, and then back that up by winning in Croatia. A tall order, but not impossible.
Embed from Getty ImagesIf Wales can get the win, it will heap the pressure on Croatia who play in Riga later that day.
And then there’s Cardiff on Tuesday. The CCS will be rocking if Wales can get that result in Armenia, with it all in their own hands. But with Turkey already qualified it’s difficult to see what they might do. Will they want to top the group? Will they offer a chance to play some fringe players, looking at their squad? Whatever happens, Wales need to concentrate on themselves, manage their emotions and hopefully begin the post-Bale era with a qualification that looked extremely unlikely back in June.
Embed from Getty ImagesIf it was to go wrong for Wales, they would almost certainly get a play-off place, but that is not something any of us want bearing in mind the position we are in. Again, hard to believe, we were pinning all our hopes on the play-offs and debating if it was worth a managerial change for 2 games to get us to Germany. It would most likely be in Path A, but if you look at the other piece I have done, it may be best to avoid that!
Embed from Getty ImagesTurkey have already qualified, Latvia have been eliminated, Wales and Croatia both would have a play-off place if they missed out. Armenia’s only chance of qualification is through their outside chance in the group, as they won’t be able to get a play-off place.
Whatever happens, it’s going to be everything that’s great about international football. It’s going to be tight, edgy, nervy, and hopefully with the ending we all want, so we can start booking bier halls for next summer and be in the draw on 2nd December.
Chris has also written a piece looking at all the group permutations and playoff paths. Read that here!.