Who needs what on the road to Germany? Final Matchday Group Previews
Chris Price @chris10pricey takes us through the if’s and maybe’s of qualifying for Euro 2024. Who can still make it to Germany?
As we head into the final group of matchdays who has already been booking bier halls, who has downloaded Duolingo just in case and who is spending next summer on the sofa or looking for alternative party destinations?
Qualified Teams: Germany (hosts), France, England, Portugal, Austria, Belgium, Spain, Scotland, Turkey – 15 places left to play for with 3 coming from the play-offs.
Group A
Automatic qualification is all sewn up with no surprises in Spain qualifying but they are joined by the Scots, who have put in superb displays including beating Spain and winning in Norway to book their place at the finals next Summer. Both teams have won 5 and lost 1 and are currently separated by goal difference.
Embed from Getty ImagesGeorgia have guaranteed a play-off place in Path C and Norway will be sweating on others to get a play-off place in Path B, or possibly placed in another path. Cyprus can enjoy a lovely summer in the sunshine.
Group B
France have qualified with a perfect record so far and look likely to be joined by the Netherlands after their last gasp penalty to beat Greece in the last matchday. That put them level on points, but the Netherlands better head-to-head group sees them in pole position and with them having 2 games left and Greece only having one, in all likelihood the Oranje are there.
Embed from Getty ImagesGreece are assured of a play-off place, which is likely to be in Path C, which is great reward for the performance in the group. The Republic of Ireland are in a similar position to Norway, hoping for preferable results from others and Gibraltar can enjoy the view from the rock, as that is as close as they are getting to Germany, having lost all 6 games so far.
Group C
England have qualified comfortably and cement themselves alongside France as one of the favourites for next summer. The current holders Italy, look in real danger of not qualifying automatically. They have a game in hand on Ukraine and are 3 points behind. If Italy do beat North Macedonia, who haunt their nightmares after what happened in the play-offs for WC 2022, it sets up a winner take all game in Leverkusen against Ukraine next Monday night.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Italians do have the safety net of a guaranteed Path A play-off place having won their Nations League group. But, after what happened last time I’m sure they won’t want to be involved in playoffs again! Ukraine would likely get a play-off place. And who knows, if Italy and England qualify, surely, they should do the right thing and step aside and let Ukraine qualify 🙂 North Macedonia couldn’t back up their incredible efforts from the last 2 campaigns and will be watching at home with Malta.
Group D
More on this group in a separate post!
Embed from Getty ImagesGroup E
Albania have shocked everyone; being consistent, boasting a superb home record including beating both Poland and Czechia comfortably. Due to the remaining fixtures, they have almost certainly booked their place in Germany. They have a 3-point gap to 3rd and play the bottom 2, Moldova and Faroe Islands in their final matchdays.
Embed from Getty ImagesSecond place is between Poland and Czechia, who play each other in Warsaw on Friday night. However, crucially Czechia have played a game less and have a 1 point lead, so even if they do lose on Friday, they will get a second chance against Moldova next week. Poland will probably need the play-off place from League A. Moldova have been eliminated and almost certainly so have the Faroe Islands.
Group F
This group is just being played out. Belgium and Austria have qualified automatically, with Belgium booking their place in the most tragic of circumstances with the abandoned game against Sweden. Sweden have been eliminated but the bottom 2 will still harbour hopes of a play-off place, with Azerbaijan currently the 6th best in Path C being helped by Turkey’s qualification and Estonia being the best group winner from League D.
Embed from Getty ImagesGroup G
Hungary and Serbia are so close to booking their place they can make refundable bookings right now. With 2 games left Montenegro have hope since Serbia only have one, but with Serbia’s final game at home to bottom side Bulgaria, you must think it’s almost done. Montenegro are 5 off second place, so at this point they need snookers to qualify.
Embed from Getty ImagesHungary’s 2 games are against Bulgaria and then Montenegro but will hope they have qualified before the final matchday. Montenegro don’t have the safety net of the play-offs, and Lithuania have also been eliminated. However bottom side Bulgaria will still hope for a play-off place but will need a lot of good luck as they are quite low on the League C ranking.
Group H
Currently, Slovenia and Denmark are separated by goal difference at the top of the group, but both will be peering nervously over their shoulders at Kazakhstan. On Matchday 9, Denmark host Slovenia, with at least one dropping points, while Kazakhstan are at home to San Marino. That could set up a winner takes all game in Ljubljana between Slovenia and Kazakhstan, and Denmark needing to get something from Northern Ireland.
Embed from Getty ImagesBecause of Scotland’s qualification, Finland are guaranteed a play-off place from League B. Northern Ireland and San Marino have been eliminated, but at least San Marino have scored a goal!
Group I
This group has is still wide open because of Israel’s need to play 4 games in 9 days during this window. They are currently in 3rd place, and 4 points behind Switzerland and 5 behind Romania. Romania have played 2 games more and Switzerland have played 1 more. Crucially Israel have to play both of them in this window. However, with the current conflict they will be playing their home games in Hungary.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe key question for Israel is how much they will have in the tank for these qualifiers, as we know from previous experience lots of games in a short space of time doesn’t often bode well.
Switzerland would almost be guaranteed a play-off place. However, if Romania miss out automatically, they will also miss out on a play-off place which will be a disaster given their performance in the group so far. Belarus and Andorra have been eliminated and Kosovo will need lots of help and luck if they are to get a play-off place.
Group J
Portugal have eased themselves to qualifying with a perfect record, scoring tons of goals in the process. Slovakia are almost there and need 2 points to guarantee qualification, but should be okay with just 1 as they own most of the tiebreakers. Luxembourg, who are one of the stories of this qualification, still could catch them, but will likely have to settle for a play-off place, which is an incredible achievement.
Sandro Wolfinger with the goal of the week for Liechtenstein. 🤩
— Football Tweet ⚽ (@Football__Tweet) September 9, 2023
🎥 @EURO2024
pic.twitter.com/tjJbycvI9V
Hard to believe it’s 8 years since the Thunderclap and Iceland knocking out England, but their qualification campaign has again been poor. They will most likely get a play-off place, but you must think their golden generation is over.
Bosnia and Herzegovina are guaranteed a play-off place having won their Nations League group and will be in Path B. Liechtenstein have been eliminated after scoring a solitary goal and conceding 25.
What’s Next
With 2 games left there is still plenty to play for, with some looking for automatic qualification and some looking for form ahead of the play-offs. The play-offs are booked in for 21st and 26th March next year. UEFA should offer a university degree to work out how the play-offs will work, but if things stay the same (and in Group D we are definitely hoping they do!) this is the current state of play from the UEFA website:
Path A: Croatia, Italy, Poland, Estonia
Path B: Israel, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Finland, Iceland
Path C: Georgia, Greece, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg
As you can see, three teams from League A were left without an automatic place and so make up Path A, alongside League D’s best side, Estonia. Path B is taken by League B sides with Finland and Iceland taking Scotland and Serbia’s places. In Path C, Luxembourg have currently taken Turkey’s spot to complete that line up. However, with multiple sides still in with a chance of automatic qualification, this could change massively. If it was to stay like this, the play-offs would look like this with the seeding taken from their Nations League ranking.
Semi-finals – Path A: Croatia (1) vs Estonia (4), Italy (2) vs Poland (3)
Final Path A: Croatia/Estonia vs Italy/Poland (host to be drawn)
Semi-finals – Path B: Israel (1) vs Iceland (4), Bosnia and Herzegovina (2) vs Finland (3)
Final Path B: Israel/Iceland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina/Finland (host to be drawn)
Semi-finals – Path C: Georgia (1) vs Luxembourg (4), Greece (2) vs Kazakhstan (3)
Final Path C: Georgia/Luxembourg vs Greece/Kazakhstan (host to be drawn)
The draw will take place on 23rd November.
UEFA logo vector image courtesy of https://vectorportal.com/vector/uefa-vector-logo/6409