Prompted by a question from James on Twitter, Jon Lewis is back with look at the exciting attacking options developing for Mick McCarthy at Cardiff City.
Good Problems for McCarthy
Half a dozen games into the reign of Mick McCarthy and Cardiff City appear to have their hearts set on joining the age of “5 at the back”. Two areas have been key to this successful transition. First, having confidence in your three central defenders, even with the occasional shaky moment in covering the areas vacated by the wingback. Second, the solution of linking the midfield with their lone front man, either by following a box structure stacking two attacking midfielders on top of a central midfield pairing, or by deploying a diamond in the heart of the pitch.
Support for Moore
On Tuesday evening Cardiff City won a fourth game on the bounce since settling into the new structure directed by Mick McCarthy. Having started with more of a diamond in the draw against Millwall, they are now opting to offer double support to Kieffer Moore through the various combinations of Harry Wilson, Sheyi Ojo and Josh Murphy. The team is now finding goals, and in turn wins, easier to come by. Whilst the game at Luton may not have had the attacking impetus of the other games during this winning streak, the involvement of Harry Wilson in the attacking third of the pitch has been shown to be a difference maker. On Tuesday evening he was able to take control of the ball 25 yards out from goal, on his left foot, and put it in the one place it just had to end up, the back of the net.
Harry Wilson, first up
The two keys pieces of play Harry Wilson was involved with on Tuesday both resulted in goals for Cardiff. A swerving shot, minutes after his opener, forced a great save and from the resulting corner another Welshman, Will Vaulks, got his name on the scoresheet. This has backed up similar solid appearances for Wilson since he was brought on against Millwall, where he created the equaliser. From there, it was a no brainer that he had to start alongside Ojo as the attacking midfield pair at Bristol City. The outcome of these matches, with Wilson playing vital roles, will be providing more optimism that Cardiff City fans have yet to see the best that Wilson has to offer.
The Case for Sheyi Ojo
Mick McCarthy had found a constant partner for Kieffer Moore, in his first four games in charge, through the presence of Sheyi Ojo. The original of the two Liverpool loanees found himself moved to a more central role during the comeback draw to Barnsley, in order to provide sufficient support to Moore as part of this new tactical set-up, and it has proved fruitful with an assist and a goal in McCarthy’s first two wins in charge.
And what about Josh Murphy?
With Sheyi Ojo coming off during the game at Rotherham it became the perfect opportunity for Josh Murphy to throw his hat into the ring for a starting spot, doing so with an outstanding piece of vision to set-up Joe Bennett for the match winner. Injuries to Ojo and Jonny Williams opened the door for Josh Murphy to start, in an under-seen central role, in the home win to Coventry. An influential performance against the Sky Blues was done by matching disciplined defensive work with eye catching attacking prowess.
Murphy retained his place in the victory away to Luton, however he became more of a bit part player, as many did in the evening, with Cardiff struggling to retain the ball for any periods of time. Early on Murphy was able to drift and try to exploit space behind the Luton right wingback, but it became his discipline that was more on show as he was required to drop in to support his central midfielders as they attempted to press and win the ball back.
And don’t forget Joe Ralls and Mark Harris
Look at the performances and effort of Murphy, Ojo and Wilson under MM, and it does make you wonder why Neil Harris was unable to get the same levels from them. They provide a prospective combination of the three behind Kieffer Moore in the oft used 4-2-3-1 structure. Early season victories away to Nottingham Forest and Preston saw Joe Ralls fulfill the advanced role with Ojo and Hoilett either side of him. Then the make-or-break match at home to Luton saw Mark Harris deployed in a supporting role to Kieffer Moore. This tactic earned the club 4 successive victories before the wheels came off in the South Wales Derby.
It will be a headache for Mick McCarthy to decide on who his two supporting acts should be. However, based on the attacking contribution each man has made to date in their new roles, this will be made easier by casting an eye on the defensive work rate each player offers.
So what’s looking like the pattern?
When Ojo has started in the reign of Mick, he has been deployed as the most advanced of the midfield quartet, working up alongside Moore, whilst the other advanced player has been asked to drop in and support the central midfield two of Vaulks and Pack, with the latter having replaced an injured Ralls in the last two games. From a creative aspect, you would normally look upon Harry Wilson as the preferred option, looking to always retain his space in an attempt to pre-empt his teammates winning the ball back and being ready to receive it to feet.
However, when playing with Ojo this leaves Wilson often receiving the ball in his own half with opposition pressure applied quickly, and we saw on Tuesday how receiving the ball in the opposition third can ensure Wilson is at his influential best. An attitude and mentality from Josh Murphy to work hard and be a ball winner in support of the midfield has shown a new side of the player, who seems to have hunger to do what is being asked of him by his new gaffer, offering a perfect chance for Ojo or Wilson to remain higher up the pitch.
Nice maths problems ahead of important games
It’s mid-February and 6 of the next 8 fixtures Cardiff City have coming up are against teams currently in the top half of the Championship, with Mick McCarthy facing some tough choices to make. First, if his focus is on keeping the Cardiff City job, he’ll need to be picking his strongest starting 11, at which point fleeting moments of form, as shown by Josh Murphy in recent games, will need to be overlooked in favour of the known quality Ojo and Wilson have the chance of providing in games. A case of playing the odds. When those odds can result in a moment of magic, as shown by Harry Wilson at Luton, can they really be ignored?
If McCarthy comes through that tough run of fixtures unscathed, his selection process will be made even more difficult if the club find themselves within a couple of wins of the top 6. If he feels secure in his position and expects a contract extension to be forthcoming, will the expectation be to continue to pick the strongest 11 in an attempt to break into the playoffs at the culmination of the season?
At what point will McCarthy’s focus start to turn to next season, with a consideration having to be given to the players that have more of a future at the club than the loan stars from Liverpool. If his focus remains on picking his strongest 11, with Ojo and Wilson, where will the minds of players like Murphy, Tomlin, Williams and Hoilett go? Will Mick McCarthy want to give opportunities to those four contracted players to prove they should be starting matches now, in an attempt to make themselves first choice next season.
Exciting attacking options, but a dilemma for McCarthy
In spite of attacking abilities or defensive disciplines, the decision over which two players start will be made easier by their individual fitness and recovery levels. With just one week without a midweek fixture before the next international break, at the end of March, the club face the same predicament as so many others, do you make change for change’s sake? Try to pre-empt player burnout. Substitute players before tiredness shows and recovery might require additional days. We’ve already seen that injuries will influence how McCarthy will pick his starting 11, with Ojo joining Ralls in missing the last two fixtures after both picked up knocks in the win away to Rotherham.
With games against some of the top sides in the league coming up, it will be of interest to see if Mick McCarthy continues with the double attacking threat behind an inform Kieffer Moore, or if a more conservative approach is made. Will we see more of a central three being deployed with Leandro Bacuna coming in and given the freedom to roam, as seen in cameo appearances against Bristol City and Coventry, or could a fit again Joe Ralls be restored to the starting line up to partner Vaulks and Pack.
Even more permutations …
As the Luton match wore on, we saw both Murphy and Wilson becoming wingers in a 5-4-1 structure which saw the team lose the central midfield battle. Fine, when you’re two nil up away to mid table opposition, but not a tactic that should be repeated, even if players like Bacuna and Bagan are deployed instead. The thinking and tinkering for Mick McCarthy will go far beyond choosing between Ojo, Murphy and Wilson.
Whilst there is still an attacking intent to the starting 11 Mick McCarthy selects, if we consider what individuals have done on the pitch this season, it would appear to be an easy decision to choose two of a fit Ojo, Murphy and Wilson. Of those three that have been deployed in the early weeks of McCarthy’s reign, if you were to put them on paper and order them based on their ability to reach their potential in a single match, again there are two you would easily select over the other. On those two scenarios all eyes would have to be on the pair of Liverpool loanees.
Once you add the current form and fitness of all three men into how they look on paper, then if all three are available for selection Mick McCarthy would be just as well off putting their names into a hat and starting the first two his pulls out.
IMAGES: Harry Wilson; training session in Wrexham | Author = lesbardd | Date = 20/5/18 / © Stadium Copyright Jaggery and licensed for reuse under this Creative Commons Licence. / McCarthy Jon Candy from Cardiff, Wales, CC BY-SA 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons