Path A Semi Final Euro 2024 – Thursday 21st March 2024 – Cardiff City Stadium
A major tournament place at stake, a semi-final and a potential final in Cardiff, anyone getting a sense of déjà vu? For the second successive tournament, Wales find themselves in winner takes all territory. Chris Price @Chris10Pricey takes a look at how we got here and what is ahead this week.
CARFAN CYMRU 🏴
— Wales 🏴 (@Cymru) March 13, 2024
Our play-off path to reach the @EURO2024 finals awaits…#TogetherStronger pic.twitter.com/BjSIkBf7gQ
How did we get here?
Essentially, we blew it. Having beaten Croatia in October, in arguably Robert Page’s best performance in charge, it was in our hands going into the November double header. However, a dreadful first half in Armenia and not being able to kick on having got the equaliser just before the break, it put us behind the eight-ball going into the final day. In the end, a limp performance against Turkey counted for nothing as Croatia won out and took the 2nd qualifying spot from Group D.
Embed from Getty ImagesWales’ play-off spot was pretty much nailed on for a while. Although they were the lowest ranked team in Group A of the Nations League, the fact 14 of the 16 countries qualified automatically meant Wales always had this back up. As Poland the only other Group A country not to qualify, were higher ranked than Wales, they took the number 1 seed and Wales took the number 2.
The Opposition
Finland can count themselves unlucky to have to be in this path. They were in a non-group winners draw between themselves, Ukraine, and Iceland. The other 2 went into Path B with a more favourable draw, with Finland having to go into Path A.
Despite a strong start in qualifying, winning 3 out of the first 4, a poor October ultimately undid Finland. They finished 3rd in their group, four points behind Denmark and Slovenia. They won 6 out of 10 but lost both games against Denmark and 3-0 defeat to Slovenia and a shock home defeat to Kazakhstan was enough to end their hopes of automatic qualification.
In the latest Nations League, they finished 2nd in their League B group, behind Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Previous Meetings
In what seems a different world, Wales met Finland twice during Covid times in the Nations League. The first game in Helsinki was settled with a late counterattack with Dan James’ searing pace, setting up Moore for a tap in. In the final game, an early red card for Finland set up a comfortable 3-1 win for Wales, including a stunning goal from Dan James and leading to promotion to League A, leaving Finland to finish 2nd.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe latest meeting was a friendly game in September 2021 in Helsinki. Wales off the back of exiting Euro 2020 against Denmark and prior to the game in Belarus, a much-changed Wales side played out a pretty dour 0-0 draw.
Overall, Wales have won 6, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their games against Finland, dating back to their first meeting in 1971.
The Teams
For Wales, most of the team looks like it picks itself. It seems like more than ever before, several players are getting regular first team minutes. A little part of Wales seems to be growing in Yorkshire, with Leeds now leading the Championship and depending on a Welsh core. Neco Williams is getting deserved, regular minutes at Forest and won their player of the month for February. Kieffer Moore, back from injury, went on loan in late January and is getting minutes at promotion chasing Ipswich.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe big decisions for Wales surround the keeper situation and the captain. The one area of the pitch not getting regular minutes are the goalkeepers, with no-one playing. Do you go with the regular keeper, Danny Ward or the man for the big occasion Wayne Hennessey? A miraculous recovery for Aaron Ramsey has allowed him to be in the squad and he was able to record some minutes for Cardiff in the derby last Saturday. How fit is he? How long can he last? And can he inspire Wales like Gareth Bale did 2 years ago?
Embed from Getty ImagesFor Finland, there are some recognisable names. Teemu Pukki will be well known for his time at Norwich and is Finland’s all-time leading goal scorer. He is now at Minnesota United in the States and a several of the squad ply their trade in the MLS. Their captain, Lukas Hradecky is the number 1 at Xabi Alonso’s stunning Leverkusen side, who are marching their way to the Bundesliga title. Glen Kamara plays for Leeds alongside several of the Wales squad, let’s hope they have been speaking Welsh during training recently! The rest of the squad mainly play across Europe at various levels.
Looking at the statistics from their qualifying, they did tend to have a lot of the ball and averaged around 56% possession in their games. They had a similar goal for and against to their peers in qualifying, but they did score almost all of their goals from inside the box, with very few coming from crosses.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Verdict
Sport is all about opportunities and Wales could not have been given a better one based on how they blew it in November. A home game against a lower ranked team they have beaten twice in the last few years. The stars seemed to have aligned for this. I feel the big deciding factor in this, is the home advantage. A rocking CCS has carried Wales through in the past and I would expect it to again. They will need to be at their best, patient and take their chances.
The ramifications for losing here could be massive. Rob Page already is on borrowed time with some fans, and failure here is almost certainly going to be the final straw. The challenge will be how Wales can back that up in the 2nd game of this international window. But let’s worry about that after they have got the job done on Thursday.
Elsewhere on Thursday
In Path A, Poland play the lowest ranked team left in the play-offs, Estonia, the only team from League D. They should win comfortably, but they only need to look at the previous play-off series and how North Macedonia turned over Italy for a warning of how not to take this lightly. The winner will face Wales or Finland next Tuesday.
In Path B, Israel as group winners play Iceland, but without home advantage with it being played in Budapest. Bosnia are at home to Ukraine. The winner will host the winner of the Israel against Iceland game. I am going for a Ukraine v Israel final there.
In Path C, Georgia host Luxembourg and Greece host Kazakhstan. The winner of the Georgia Luxembourg game will host the final. I am going for 2 away wins here, especially after Luxembourg and Kazakhstan’s performances in qualifying and what a moment it will be if one of those teams can qualify for the finals in June.