James Evans (@GalloisinFrance) takes a hard stats look at Cymru’s opening World Cup opponents, the USA, as well as their recent results, likely lineup and a prediction!
Never thought that this would be written BUT Wales’s OPENING WORLD CUP game will be against USA on 21st November.
In terms of population size, it is a David and Goliath affair with USA gulfing Wales by 331 million to 3 million. Ouch.
Prior to the game, what are the USA like at tournaments? How are they shaping up this year?
Love stats? Read on…
Stars, Stripes and Records
The USA boast an admirable record for world cup qualifying. Since the inception of the tournament in 1930, they have failed to qualify only 10 times, with a barren spell between 1950 and 1990, but qualified on 11 attempts.
With the change of tournament format including group stages, they have navigated their way to the knockouts on 4 occasions, most notably doing this on their previous 2 appearances in 2010 and 2014 (they did not qualify for 2018).
Since 2006, out of the 9 games played in the group stages they have lost 3, drawn 4 and won 2 games.
Overall records outside of the world cup, they won their Nations League group in 2019/2020, have won the Concacaf Gold Cup 7 times and have finished runners-up 6 times. Not bad!
Lastly, the USA have already, as if by magic, qualified for the WC in 2026, when they will co-host the tournament alongside Canada and Mexico.
Recent Record
USA come in to the tournament having finished 3rd in their Concacaf qualifying group behind Canada and Mexico. More recently, they have only 1 loss in the last 5 fixtures across nations league and friendly fixtures in 2022. A lot has been made about their 2-0 defeat to Japan in September but they have only conceded 3 goals across these 5 games, scoring 8 times BUT failing to score in 3 games.
Embed from Getty ImagesDuring WCQ, Pulisic of Chelsea was their target man with 5 goals in 10 games and Pepi with 3 goals and 3 assists in 10 games.
The Stats
Last 5 games:
Wales – L D L L L
USA – D W D L D
USA results:
05/06 USA 0 -0 Uruguay FRIENDLY – n/a
11/06 USA 5 – 0 Grenada CONCAF N.LEAGUE – Ferreira x4, Arriola
15/06 El Salvador 1 – 1 USA CONCAF N.LEAGUE – J. Morris
23/09 Japan 2 – 0 USA FRIENDLY – n/a
27/09 Saudi Arabia 0 – 0 USA FRIENDLY – n/a
GF – 6 GA – 3
Top USA goal scorers in WCQ:
Pulisic – 5 goals in 10
Pepi – 3 goals in 10
Robinson – 2 in 13
Top USA assists in WCQ:
Pepi – 3 in 10
Robinson 3 in 10
Aaronson – 1 in 10
Wales results:
08/06 Wales 1 -2 Netherlands UEFA N.LEAGUE – R. N-Davies
11/06 Wales 1- 1 Belgium UEFA N.LEAGUE – Johnson
15/06 Netherlands 3 – 2 Wales UEFA N.LEAGUE – Johnson, Bale
22/09 Belgium 2 – 1 Wales UEFA N.LEAGUE – Moore
25/09 Wales 0 – 1 Poland UEFA N.LEAGUE – n/a
GF – 5 GA – 8
Top Wales goal scorers in WCQ:
Bale – 6 goals in 7
Ramsey – 3 goals in 6
Moore – 2 goals in 6
Top Wales assists in WCQ:
Bale – 3 assists in 7
Wilson – 3 assists in 8
James – 2 assists in 10
How will they line up?
During the last 5 games, the USA have used a classic 4-3-3 formation with Zimmermann and Long as centre backs, Adams playing an anchor role in midfield and Ferriera in a lone striker’s role. With Pepi’s record in qualifying, he would be the preference to start in this opening game.
Embed from Getty ImagesWales have been using a mixture of 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2 formations throughout qualifying and the nations league this year and Page is ready to deploy either option moving forward, though Wales have scored more goals and looked more threatening with 2 upfront.
Prediction
It’s going to be an emotional occasion for Wales but as Page said in a recent FourFourTwo article, we will respect all the sides of our group and look to give a thorough account of ourselves. The USA have a positive record in group stage games and have more experience of big tournaments in comparison to Wales.
Prediction Time:
1-0
Bale to score for Wales