Wales v Poland
Path A Final – Tuesday 26th March 2024 – Cardiff City Stadium
Chris @Chris10Pricey takes a look ahead to the Playoff Final …. …
If you had told us 20 years ago these nights were possible, you might have been dreaming. The fact they are becoming common place is almost unthinkable, but on Tuesday, Wales have the chance to qualify for their 3rd consecutive Euros.
How did we get here?
Embed from Getty ImagesIf there were nerves from the fans, the team showed none as they produced a superb performance to beat Finland on Thursday. There were some eyebrows raised at the team announcement, but fair credit to Rob Page, he made some big calls, and they paid off. They took their chances, used the ball well and had far too much for the Finns. It was hard to find a Wales player that didn’t produce at least a 7 out of 10. The critical side of you thinks, that if that performance had been produced last November, we wouldn’t be in this predicament. The optimistic side says it was a good performance, and it could be even better.
It will need to be better against the Poles, as they will provide a much sterner test. They have more quality and know how to get a result as discussed below.
The Opposition
As Wales were beating Finland, Poland cruised through their semi-final, thrashing Estonia 5-1. They only led 1-0 at half time, but asserted their dominance in a one sided second half.
After making the last 16 of the World Cup in Qatar, Poland made a real mess of qualifying for Euro 2024. In what seemed like a relatively straightforward group, they finished third, winning just 3 of their 8 games, against much lower opposition. Defeats to Moldova and Albania led to the sacking of their manager and dropping points at home to Moldova and Czechia meant they finished with just 11 points, 6 of them coming against the Faroe Islands.
Embed from Getty ImagesPoland were the other beneficiaries of the Nations League situation, being the only other side with Wales from League A who did not qualify directly.
Previous Meetings
Having not played Poland for many years, after promotion to League A, Wales were joined in their group by the Poles. It proved to be a highly frustrating pair of meetings back in 2022.
Embed from Getty ImagesWith the vital World Cup Play-off Final days away, a much-changed Wales side went to Wroclaw and nearly upset the odds. Johnny Williams driven shot flew in to give Wales the lead, but Poland were inspired by their substitute Kaminski, who scored and then played a big part in the calamitous winner late on.
Both Poland and Wales’ poor results in the Nations League set up a relegation decider on the final day. In what turned out to be an incredibly frustrating, tetchy game, things were decided by a fabulous assist from Lewandowski setting up Swiderski to drive home the winner. Wales created chances, but what most people will remember from the game was an old school continental performance of breaking up and slowing down the game to ensure Poland survived and sent Wales down.
Embed from Getty ImagesOverall, Wales have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their games against Poland, dating back to their first meeting in 1973, which was Wales’ only win over the Poles.
The Teams
For Wales, Rob Page has some big decisions to make. Do you change a winning team? How fit are the players? A big challenge for Wales over the years, is that 2nd international in the window. The back line picks itself but it’s the forward line that will be causing headaches. Did he choose the team he did on Thursday to ensure he could slightly change it on Tuesday? Dan James came on and scored, Kieffer Moore came on and gave a different option. And will Ramsey be risked? After such a good performance on Tuesday, it is hard to see many changes.
Embed from Getty ImagesFor Poland, their key concern is their right back position. Frankowski was taken off at half time on Thursday and his replacement, Villa’s Matty Cash only lasted 10 minutes before being taken off. This will need to be an area Wales attack, especially early on.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe mark up in quality from Thursday is easy to see in the Polish side. Their star man, Lewandowski needs no introduction, being one of Europe’s top strikers over the last 20 years. He is ably supported by Szczesny in goal, the emergence of Arsenal’s Kiwor and the stalwart Bednarek at the back. Napoli’s superb Zielinski in midfield makes them tick. They may not be the flashiest team to visit the CCS, but they have all the tools to be an excellent team.
The Verdict
As it should be, a play-off final is the toss of a coin. It feels like Poland have the slight edge in quality of their squad, but the CCS can be an equaliser and it will be rocking on Tuesday, especially if Thursday was anything to go by.
A big deciding factor could be the referee. He has been announced as Daniele Orsato from Italy. He has taken charge of some huge matches in the past but was blasted by Luka Modric as one of the worst referees in history and describing his performance as a disaster after Croatia’s defeat to Argentina in the World Cup Semi-Final. After what happened last time against Poland, how he handles the game could be crucial to deciding who goes to Germany in the summer.
Embed from Getty ImagesI believe the big thing for Wales is not to fall behind. As we saw last time, this is a seasoned European outfit, who know how to win ugly. If the Poles were to take the lead, Wales will need to remain patient and not become frustrated by their antics. Wales need to come out of the blocks like they did on Tuesday, put them under pressure, as has been seen in their previous results they can be got at. It is worth noting, it can go to extra time and penalties, which although would cause an ageing process that can’t be reversed, it will all be worth it if we can get the job done.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe prize is a daunting one, a place in Group D, with France, Austria, and Holland. But with games in Hamburg, Berlin, and Dortmund, I definitely want to be invited into the party rather than looking on through the window!
Elsewhere on Tuesday
There will be celebrations of some kind in Poland on Tuesday, as it hosts the League B Path Final between Ukraine and Iceland. Ukraine scored twice late to win in Bosnia, whereas Iceland rolled back the years to produce a stunning 4-1 win against Israel.
In Path C, Georgia set up a home final by beating Luxembourg 2-0 on Thursday. Greece thumped Kazakhstan 5-0 to earn their place in the final.