Dai uses some local knowledge to make a case for following the Dutch as your ‘outside’ team in Qatar.
We all know that Wales will be the World Cup winners in Qatar. Gareth Bale has likely already cleared a space in his bulging trophy cabinet for the Jules Rimet trophy. After his dream that Wales nick a late Bale thunderbolt winner against England comes true. But what if Gareth’s premonition doesn’t come to pass? I know it’s unlikely, but I’d like to recommend the Dutch as the outsiders who could end up pipping the Welsh to the top step of the World Cup podium.
Embed from Getty ImagesSo, let’s start basic. The Dutch, outside of tournaments, have only lost two games (including Nations League) since 24th March 2019. Those games were a September defeat to Italy just as the Azzurri were on the path to winning Euro 2020 (2021) against our neighbours. Followed by a first game defeat to Turkey in the campaign for this World Cup. A defeat which saw them have 20 shots, and a defeat they would later avenge with a 6-1 demolition later in the campaign.
Embed from Getty ImagesIn the recent Nations League campaign, they beat the highest ranked European team home and away. The away game against Belgium being a convincing 4-1 win. In this time, they have scored 67 goals in 27 games. 2.4 goals per game. The worry I suppose would be that they conceded 25 goals in the same 27 games. For reference, Belgium have conceded 29 times in the same amount of time. The traditionally tight Italians conceded just one fewer than the Dutch over the same period. I’d say having tournament winners as your close competition in this area is good company to be keeping.
Embed from Getty ImagesI recognise that if you scoured through the wins/draws/loses/goals record for any of the top contenders that you would find similar numbers. These figures make the Dutch far from unique. What does make them stand out though? They have what I would call a less taxing WC group. They have an Ecuador team who won just seven of their 18 qualifiers as they booked their place in Qatar, and the hosts themselves, who were easily the best draw to have from Pot 1.
Embed from Getty ImagesSenegal will provide a sterner test as the AFCON holders, but I still see the Dutch overcoming them, and topping the group. Equally, whilst no World Cup draw has an “easy side”, I do think that avoiding the likes of Germany, Brazil, Spain, Portugal and Uruguay is certainly a bonus. A semi final against either France or Argentina will likely be their toughest test of the tournament, should they progress.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Oranje’s main strength I feel is their defensive and midfield depth. In goal they have two extraordinarily strong keepers, one of them being World Class, in Jasper Cillessen. The Ajax keeper Remko Pasveer offers a very strong back up too. Both have plenty of Champions League and international experience.
Embed from Getty ImagesDefensively, I think they have the best centre back duo/group in the competition. Van Dijk, Ake, De Ligt, De Vrij plus Ajax youngster Jurrien Timber. What a combination! To have a defence as tight as the Italians is no mean feat. This solidity is flanked by both youth and experience, through two genuine wing backs in Dumfries and Blind. They have the flexibility to be the full backs in a four, or the wing backs in a five depending on the opposition.
Flexibility tactically is something the Dutch aren’t usually known for, with the rigidity of their traditional 4-3-3 formation, but perhaps this team (and manager) are proving an exception. In midfield they have lost the dynamism of Gini Wijnaldum through injury, but because of their depth are able to turn to De Jong, van de Beek, de Roon and Klassen. Players playing at top clubs in Europe at the moment. For the most part, they are a young team with a lot of energy and goals from all over.
Embed from Getty ImagesTheir “weakest” area, in terms of numbers and depth, is their attack. Bergwijn and Depay are their main threats, but I’d say from there the depth falters. Weghorst is an option from the bench, but one of their most interesting players for me, who does add variation, is Villarreal’s Arnaut Danjuma. The wide forward has only played four times for his club this season but has scored twice as he works his way back to full fitness after injuries. Of the minutes he’s played, that’s a goal every 42 minutes. Impressive. Before that he scored ten goals in 23 games in another injury hit season. His pace and directness are a real asset and bring variety to this fast and strong front line. I have also referenced their attack as being their weakness, but let’s not forget they have scored 67 in their last 27. Strong numbers.
Embed from Getty ImagesFinally, I think this World Cup is one of the most open in recent times. A few countries in transition (Spain, Germany) and some strong candidates being equally unpredictable, such as the French and the Brazilians. As such, I see the Dutch being up there with the big names as outside favourites for the trophy.
Embed from Getty ImagesThey have a manager who not only has tournament experience, but experience of success at tournaments. The Dutch got to the semi final of WC 2014 with van Goal in charge and only missed out on the final on penalties. He has experienced the highest levels of club football too, and is not afraid to roll the dice. As his decision to bring Tim Krul in for a penalty shootout in 2014 proved. A decision which perfectly played out, as Krul saved two penalties and took the Dutch to the next round.
All told, whilst the Netherlands may not be favourites, they should be considered as strong outsiders. They have depth, youth, an experienced manager and a lot of goals in their side. After Cymru, that is where I’ll be putting my money for the 2022 World Cup Winners.
Image of Dutch fans courtesy of Football ua