In this 2 part blog, Chris @Chris10Pricey rounds out with a look ahead to the Armenia and Turkey games. You can find Part 1, where Chris looked at the March qualifiers, the June squad and what it all means for Cymru, here.
Embed from Getty ImagesFriday 16th June – Armenia – CCS
First up for Wales are the groups 3rd ranked side Armenia. Rarely can you say games are must win, but this has to be. Having risen rapidly through the Nations Leagues and causing sides problems in qualifying previously, Armenia’s form over the last 2 years has been dire. Their last win came against the Republic of Ireland 15 months ago, but since then they have been battered by Ukraine and Scotland and just before that win, conceded 9 in Norway.
Embed from Getty ImagesArmenia are likely to be your typical, stubborn opponents. In the past they have tended to go with a 4-4-2 or a 5-3-2, but they are under new management, with Ukrainian, Aleksander Petrakov, who oversaw the Turkey defeat and a 2-2 friendly draw with Cyprus. They are likely to sit deep and allow us to have the ball. The earlier we can score, the easier this game will be. However, Wales have found in the past the detriment that can happen if you don’t put these lower sides to the sword. It might be important to remain patient and wait for the chance to arise and use Kieffer’s presence in the box to cause chaos.
Embed from Getty ImagesMonday 19th June – Turkey – Samsun Stadium, Turkey
A potentially pivotal moment in the group. Defeat here won’t be terminal in the race, merely a stumble, but any point/s collected could put Wales in an enviable position at the halfway point.
Embed from Getty ImagesFor inspiration, Wales don’t have to look back far. Their win against the Turks in Baku in June 2021, might be Wales’ most complete performance of recent years. That night, after months behind closed doors, Wales were met with a hostile environment and will experience similar in Samsun. Bale and Ramsey were irresistible that night and 2-0 flattered Turkey. Although the former might not be around anymore, a healthy proportion are, including 8 starters.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe key to the game might be pace and fitness. If Wales can preserve energy on Friday and use their substitutions well, they may have the right ingredients for a famous smash and grab win. Turkey regularly play the popular 4-3-3, and have quality in their ranks, but their defence can be got at and if Wales can take their chances, as they have done away from home on several occasions, then there is nothing to say they can’t get something.
Elsewhere in the group
Part of the reason for having a smaller group for qualifying, is Croatia’s involvement in the Nations League Final. They face the Netherlands in the semis and then a second game against either Italy or Spain. Personally, I’d like to see them win it. It would be fine reward for their incredible consistency over the last few years and a different name on the trophy. Crucially, from a Wales point of view, this means they don’t play any qualifiers and will be 2 games behind Wales when qualifying resumes in the autumn. Currently, we are level on points, but positive results now might mean both Turkey and Croatia are playing catch up.
Embed from Getty ImagesTurkey face Latvia in Riga on Friday before facing us on Monday. You have to see Turkey winning this and they will be hoping for a similar result to us in Cardiff. However, as we saw, Latvia can be defensively stubborn and the longer they can keep this game in the balance the better. On Monday, Armenia face Latvia at in Yerevan. With both sides on 0 points, you see this as their most likely opportunity to pick up a win in the group and for the winner, there is the potential of trying to chase down one of the 3, albeit a very slim chance.
Embed from Getty ImagesPredictions
I think Friday will be a very typical stubborn kind of night against a defensively organised side. If we can get one early, then it would force them out and I’m sure with our pace we will be able to take advantage. However, it may be a longer drawn-out affair and we need to ensure we get a second goal just to kill them off. I’m going for a 2-0 Wales win, Kieffer with an early header and Brennan to kill the game off in the second half. In Turkey, I feel it will need to be more defensively resolute, they have some superb attacking players, but I do feel their defence can be got it. I’m going for a 1-1 draw, but if we could nick it, it would put us in an incredible position at the half way point.