Stephen (@StephenJBaker) have written our match preview for our World Cup opener. Dai (@colemans_dream) couldn’t help himself (surprised?) and has chipped in too. You’ll see his contributions italics.
We have been waiting for this all season and it’s finally here; yes, the blessed relief of not having to watch Cardiff City for a month! Also, it’s World Cup time and we are days away from our first match. Cymru will take on Monday night, the 64 year wait is finally over! (Note: I’m a season ticket holder at Cardiff and it is a relief) Here is my preview.
Embed from Getty ImagesI must admit I needed to do a bit of research to be able to predict the USA starting XI. Looking at the past games USA are likely to use the 4-3-3 formation;
Gregg Berhalter is the USA manager and if he picks this side they will have an average age of 24 with the team earning 327 caps between them.
| Age | Caps | ||
| Matt Turner (GK) | Arsenal | 28 | 20 |
| Antonee Robinson (D) | Fulham | 25 | 29 |
| Tim Ream (D) | Fulham | 35 | 46 |
| Walker Zimmerman (D) | Nashville SC | 29 | 33 |
| Sergino Dest (D) | AC Milan | 22 | 19 |
| Tyler Adams (M) | Leeds Utd | 23 | 32 |
| Weston McKennie (M) | Juventus | 24 | 52 |
| Yunus Musah (M) | Valencia | 19 | 19 |
| Christian Polisic | Chelsea | 24 | 52 |
| Jesus Ferreira | FC Dallas | 21 | 15 |
| Tim Weah | Lille | 22 | 25 |
Looking at some recent performances, I think that the way Wales play will on one hand exploit the weaknesses of the US side. I think they are weak at the back, especially on the ball. Under pressure from attackers against both Saudi Arabia and Japan, they lost the ball on several occasions and left real goal scoring opportunities for their opponents. Through a combination of Saudi wastefulness and heroics in goal from Matt Turner, they couldn’t take advantage. The Japanese on the other hand did, and their opening goal of a 2-0 win game from a high pressure turn over and quick movement of the ball to create a clear opening.
The flip side of that, when it works, is that they US intend to pull opponents up the pitch and then exploit the spaces left on the break. They are a fast side, and this plan utilises their strengths in that way. It also relies on some magic from Pulisic. If Wales can deal with him, this largely curtails their attacking threats. They missed a lot of decent chances in these two games mentioned above and are far from clinical.
Embed from Getty ImagesOn the ball, the USA look to attack wide and through their full backs. They have some real strength in depth there and will pose a threat. The upside here is that with a 5 man backline, their threat is limited. The will also leave spaces behind them in order to commit forward, and again I think that suits us with both Johnson, Bale, James and the full backs having the ability to exploit that space. When in possession, shackling Tyler Adams will be the key in my mind. He is a good quick passer of the ball and always looks to give it to those around him who can break down defences.
I don’t know how many people will agree with me about the Cymru Starting XI. The main headache for Rob Page is who to play in goal. Judging by the way he talked about being loyal to the players who got us to the World Cup, I think he will go with Wayne Hennessey. I also don’t think Joe Allen will be risked/fit in time for this game either.
Embed from Getty ImagesFormation wise, I think Rob Page will go with 3-4-3 with this Starting XI
| Age | Caps | ||
| Wayne Hennessey (GK) | Nottingham Forest | 35 | 106 |
| Ben Davies (D) | Tottenham | 29 | 74 |
| Joe Rodon (D) | Stade Rennais | 25 | 36 |
| Chris Mepham (D) | Bournemouth | 25 | 33 |
| Connor Roberts (D) | Burnley | 27 | 41 |
| Neco Williams (D) | Nottingham Forest | 21 | 23 |
| Aaron Ramsey (M) | Nice | 31 | 75 |
| Ethan Ampadu (M) | Spezia | 22 | 37 |
| Daniel James (F) | Fulham | 25 | 38 |
| Kieffer Moore (F) | Bournemouth | 30 | 28 |
| Gareth Bale (F) | Los Angeles FC | 33 | 108 |
If Rob Page goes with this Starting XI then we will have an average age of 27 with staggering 593 between them.
| average age | average # of caps | |
| USA | 24 | 327 |
| Cymru | 27 | 593 |
I was really surprised by how many Caps our team has, always think of them as inexperienced, but the player with the least amount of Caps is Neco Williams with 23 Caps, to put that into perspective Nathan Blake (29 Caps) & Terry Medwin (30 Caps). At the age of 21 he’s looking to be a future centurion.
Embed from Getty ImagesI think the point Stephen has made here about experience is a key one from our side. Whilst only one US player has played at a World Cup before, and we have none of course, we are vastly more experienced than the Americans, especially as a cohesive group. A large portion of this squad is now participating in their 3rd major tournament.
Whilst the US players have played in the Gold Cup (and won it last time out), their squad has changed a lot in recent times and many will not be used to a tournament of this magnitude. I also slightly disagree with Stephen (sorry!) in how we will line up. I think Allen won’t be risked (although I understand there is a very good chance he will be able to participate if called upon) and I think we will line up a little more like we did when we played in Prague against the Czech Republic. I can see a midfield 2 of Morrell and Ampadu with Ramsey as a 10 behind James and Bale. I don’t think Moore will start. Think back to the starting line up against Italy in the Euros. That’s how I think we’ll look.
Embed from Getty ImagesWe have a playing record against the USA across jut two games, one lost and one drawn.
So we don’t really have any kind of a history against the Americans, the defeat coming in San Jose in 2003 and the draw coming during the pandemic in November 2020 behind closed doors in The Liberty Stadium in Swansea. Perfect time to even up that record with a win.
My prediction for this match, I’m going with a 2-1 win for Cymru with Brennan Johnson coming on in the Second Half scoring the winner.
As we know, predictions are not my strength, no matter how much I like doing it! With that said, I think we will overwhelm the Americans, and I think we will nick this game 1-0. Come on Wales.
IT FINALLY HAPPENING!!! CYMRU AM BYTH!!!
Opening image is adapted from Artwork for the Album O Gymru I America / Songs Of Wales And The Usa by Pendyrus Mael Choir, permissions allowed.