Do you have a birthday that coincides with a Wales footballer? Mine is the same date as Kevin Ratcliffes’s. In my childish way I’d imagine that made November very special; then along came Mark Hughes and later Ryan Giggs and I was absolutely convinced that the eleventh month had magical footballing powers. I’d readily ignore Neville Southall’s September arrival and Ian Rush’s October birth as blips … perhaps they were premature babies?
Embed from Getty ImagesWales Football Squad World Cup1994 Qualifying Campaign
CARDIFF, UNITED KINGDOM – SEPTEMBER 07: Wales squad pictured during their 1994 FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign at Cardiff Arms Park on september 7, 1993 in Cardiff, Wales, back row from left to right; Gary Speed, Ryan Giggs, Mark Aizlewood, Mark Bowen, Mark Hughes, middle row; Andy Melville, Eric Young, Tony Norman, Neville Southall, Tony Roberts, Kit Symons, Chris Coleman; front row Mark Pembridge, Ian Rush, Jeremy Goss, Barry Horne, Dean Saunders and David Phillips. (Photo by Allsport/Getty Images)
So, fast forward to the present, and I thought I’d investigate whether there was any merit in my long held faith that November babies had been disproportionally influential upon Welsh football. Next question was, well, what question to ask? The ultimate one seemed to be, if you are desperate for your son to play for Wales, when should he be born? And yes, this just covers the men’s game … as yet anyway. A gloriously ridiculous quest, but actually, I have some recommendations.
There were five ways I tried to judge months:
- Number of players with a cap within each month
- Total number of caps gained by players born in each month
- Average number of caps gained by each player, in each month
- Number of players each month with 50+ caps
- Individual dates that gained much higher cap totals than would be expected
After much gathering of data acorns, scurried away in the hope they might be helpful (eventually) I’ve gathered the following month by month observations.
January, you are ever so slightly above average … not really what you wanted to hear, right? Take solace, just be glad you’re not June. Your highest ranking is for the number of capped players, 49, where you’re placed third. Otherwise you are bang average – total caps won by players born in January – right on the money 598 (average is 595); number of players who’ve gained 50+ caps – January hits the expected three, Rod Thomas, Joe Ledley and Wayne Hennessey . Where you do shine is on one day in particular, January 23rd. Capped players with that birthday have garnered a stellar 107 caps – Ledley again helping out, James Chester and Stan Richards. So if baby boy has to arrive in January, try for the 23rd.
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February – you’re shooting a bit below par, in honesty. And before you shout foul, I’ve adjusted things to account for your 28 1/4 day handicap (this gives the apparently strange decimals in some stats). The only category where you make the top half of the table is average number of caps per player. You scramble a fifth place there with a decidedly average 14.2 caps. You are the only month though with multiple 100 cap days – February 7th and 16th. Thank Cliff Jones and Neil Taylor for securing the first and Willie Davies, David Vaughan and Leighton James for the latter. Better than January ah? You can at least offer two good dates.
March – you are struggling March, no doubt about it. There are just two 50+ cap players, but what players, Terry Yorath and Joey Jones. Think you might settle for that combination. Otherwise you have very little to recommend the month. In fact in the ‘just one cap would do’ criteria, you’re pretty dire with only 38 capped players across the whole month.
April – take a bow April, you are easily the best choice for the first half of the year, in fact right through the summer too. Top of the ‘average number of caps per player’ league at 17.4 caps per player; and fourth or fifth in all other categories including a commendable 749 total caps in the month. You also have an above average number of 50+ cap players – Paul Jones, Dai Davies, Robert Earnshaw, John Hartson. So definitely the choice if you want an ‘earlier in the year’ baby. Looking for a specific date? Go with the 18th and add to Doug Witcomb, Paul Jones and Roy Paul’s 88 combined caps.
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May – sorry, May but you will need to sit down for this; you’re in a pretty bad way. About the only redeeming feature is that you’re not June. You manage to stave off last place in three categories but take that dubious honour in the criteria ‘average number of caps per player’ where you prop up the table with a measly 11.4. You have just one 50+ cap player; imagine where your numbers would be without Barry Horne’s 59.
June – I’m reserving a great big cwtch for you cariad. No two ways about it June, for purposes of birth you are to be avoided. You have less than half the number of capped players compared to the top ranking month, only 28. Even worse, those players then go on to get the lowest number of average total caps, only 11.4, a dire double whammy there. Considering Dean Saunders alone is providing almost a quarter of your month’s caps, you’re just a mess. Danny Ward is the only current squad player born in June, so we need to keep our fingers crossed for him. Still you gave us Chris Coleman so all is not lost. His 32 caps put him second on the June list by the way.
July – Breathe easy July, you are in a much better position than your near neighbor June. Your best showing is in the ‘average number of caps’ section where you’re second with 17 per player. As you’d expect from that value you have a better than average 680 total caps awarded, but across just 40 players which is definitely sub-par. Good news is that you have Gareth Bale and Chris Gunter, so there are certainly more caps to come. Other 50+ cap recipients are Mickey Thomas, Craig Bellamy and Dave Phillips – not a bad spine across those five. You have a striking clutch of good dates, five days with 70+ caps – the 7th, 13th, 16th, 21st and 29th. No other month comes close to competing with that.
Embed from Getty ImagesAugust – You’re an interesting case August. You have an average number of capped players (42 which puts you 6th on list) but a terrible return on caps for those players – the average number awarded is under 12 which places you eleventh on that list. You do have one standout date though. Thanks to Arfon Griffiths, Ashley Williams and James Collins, August 23rd is a red letter day with a total of 144 caps – only one day beats that. Williams and Collins are your only 50+ caps players though, so imagine if we’d been looking at this a few years ago.
September – Compared to what’s gone before, you are in a really good place September. You are the hors d’oeuvre in the run of great autumn months. You are third or fourth in all categories, gaining a 775 cap total and a little under 17 caps per player. Your 50+ capped players are a combative lot – Leighton Phillips, John Mahoney, Gary Speed and Neville Southall. Thanks to the latter and Barrie Hole, you have one outstanding date with 122 caps – September 16th.
October – You are definitely one of the stars of the show October. Topping the list for number of players with caps, 59, that’s seven caps more than the second placed month in that category and approaching 12% of players. Collectively they sum to a stellar 820 caps. But taken across these near sixty players your caps per player drops to only sixth place at almost 14. Six players have 50+ caps – Sam Ricketts, Brian Flynn, Carl Robinson, Ian Rush, Sam Vokes and Simon Davies. You also second in the single day player count with October 11th having six capped players, and a total of 98 caps.
November – yes, so I’m biased, but as I turns out November you’re the man! Where to start – most caps at 842 and second in number of players with 52. Your caps per player ends up joint third at just under 17. Like October you have six players with 50+ caps, but this group gather 30 extra caps between them with 387 – Mark Hughes, Peter Nicholas, Kevin Ratcliffe, Andy Melville, Mark Pembridge, Ryan Giggs. The most striking stat though involves those last three, who along with Frank Hoddinott, Jimmy Evans, John King and John Neal, all have birthdays on November 29th. That means 7 players all with the same birthday – you’d expect to see less than 1½ per day. Together they have an amazing 192 caps – almost ten times the expected number. Take a bow November.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Wales team prior to the British Championship match against Scotland at the Vetch Field Stadium in Swansea, 16th May 1981. Wales won 2-0. Left-right: Dai Davies, Joey Jones, Paul Price, Ian Walsh, Brian Flynn, Peter Nicholas, Leighton Phillips, Kevin Ratcliffe, Carl Harris, Mickey Thomas and Leighton James. (Photo by Bob Thomas Sports Photography via Getty Images)
December – sorry December, you are never going to compete with November, but even so you are doing rather woefully. You have only 40 capped players and a cap per player average of 13½. Overall this puts you in the bottom three months. 50+ cap players are few and far between, but you have a good pair – Ivor Allchurch and Aaron Ramsey. John Charles would certainly have joined them had he been released by clubs more often; what an impact he had in just 38 caps.
Summary – as said this is ridiculous data, but strangely intriguing. Players with birthdays in September to November account for a third of all caps; for the three months May through July it is under 20%. Would love to hear your thoughts on why?
Disclaimer – I’ve obviously tried to double check all data and calculations, but one major issue is the absence of data for many of the players gaining caps in the late 19th century. Many of them had to be omitted in the end as I could only find birth year and not full birth date. This results in a number of players not being included. Some sources also clearly included friendlies whilst others didn’t. I’ve left them in.