Dai @colemans_dream takes a punt at a few predictions ahead of Euro 2024, with Stephen @StephenJBaker and Chris @Chris10Pricey adding their thoughts too.
I am not over the fact that a few hours down the road from me, the Euros are starting and we are not a part of it. It makes you realise how grateful we should be for the 8 years we have experienced and how much fun it has been. Some moments and memories which will last a lifetime.
Embed from Getty ImagesOverall thoughts and likely winners
All we can do from this stage on, is hope our furniture throwing neighbours will be on the first plane home, in their Black and Tan outfits. Make of that what you will.
The shame is, they are probably the most complete team at the tournament in my view with some real depth, especially in attack. Their biggest challenge on their side of the draw is likely the Germans although Spain and Italy would provide a test. I think England will at least get to the final, especially as they will likely face one of the third placed teams in the last 16.
Embed from Getty ImagesFrom there it is anyone’s guess how things will pan out, but my final 4 will be Germany, England, France and the slightly underrated Dutch. From there I’d back the French to play England in the final. I can’t explain to you how wrong I hope I am, but I do see England taking the trophy on 16th July. I expect Bellingham and Foden to be the stars of the show.
Stephen’s thoughts are similar: Winners – France and Runners Up – Germany
Embed from Getty ImagesGermany will get to the final, which will be good for the tournament. But I can’t see France letting this one slip after getting so close in the World Cup.
But Chris goes a little outside the predictable box:
I am going to be boring and say the four favourites will make up the final four. There is a gap between them and the rest, for differing reasons. France has the best team on paper, England have incredible attacking options, Portugal have a ageless man on a mission and an outstanding supporting cast and with the Germans on home soil, they remind me of the 2006 World Cup side, no outlandish stars but a team coming of age. Personally, I think it will be a repeat of Euro 2016 in a Portugal France final, with the same outcome, maybe with Ronaldo’s Hollywood ending.
Embed from Getty ImagesOthers to look out for
I’m not sure I can call the Dutch dark horses or a surprise package given their history and the quality they have in certain areas but they are a very strong team. They were a little unlucky after their memorable comeback in the World Cup quarter final in Qatar, losing on penalties to eventual winners Argentina and I think they’ll do well here too, no doubt with a huge following considering where the tournament is being held.
Embed from Getty ImagesI think Turkey will do well having seen them close up twice in recent times and I fancy the Albanians to surprise a few people too. They topped their group in qualifying beating Poland and Czechia along the way. I’d love to see Georgia do well, mainly as I’ve drawn them in the sweepstakes at work, but for a team to be in their first tournament is special and they have some decent players too, so here’s hoping.
Embed from Getty ImagesChris’ surprise package is Hungary, who have been superb in recent years, really grown and expect them to finish second behind Germany in Group A. In Group E, Ukraine will surely relish being on the big stage again and in an open group should go through. Finally, I’d love Georgia to do well, the lowest ranked team and their first tournament, it is great the Nations League is allowing outsiders the chance to dream.
Stephen though goes for a tournament regular. I thought about Hungary and Scotland for my Dark horse but eventually went for Croatia. Such a great team on paper never considered in the argument on who will win the tournament.
Embed from Getty ImagesTop scorer
Top scorer in my eyes will likely be Harry Kane. He’s done so well in Germany this season and scored a barely believable 36 goals in 32 Bundesliga matches. England don’t have the toughest group and I expect him to bag a few early on. I’d say Mbappe and Fullkrug of Germany, who I really like the look of, will be close behind.
Stephen thinks that For France to win the Euros, it would mean Mbappe knocking in the goals. Having not scored in Euro 20, he will surely want to set that right.
Embed from Getty ImagesWhile Chris’ ideas are more inline with Dai’s Again, it’s hard to look past the favourites here. Harry Kane will inevitably get at least 3 penalties, and Lukaku’s 14 goals in qualifying make him a good shout. Real Madrid’s latest unknown punt, Mbappe will surely be France’s focal point. However, for value, I would look at Fullkrug of Germany at 25/1 or Hojlund and Ramos at 33/1,
Home Nations
Chris has thought this one through: Another summer of ‘It’s Coming Home,’ delightful… In all seriousness, England must be part of the conversation. Their attacking talent is incredible, and in Jude Bellingham they have arguably the best player in the world, who has taken to Madrid like a duck to water. Their front 6 is formidable, with a range of back up options.
Embed from Getty ImagesTheir concern is at the back and their manager. Their defence is patchwork and doesn’t have the quality of the rest of the team. And despite all the progress under Southgate, he lacks the guile to make game changing decisions. He doesn’t seem to have learnt from the 2018 Semi defeat and 2021 Final, where they had the game in their grasp, but lacked the killer instinct. I feel history will repeat itself, and Southgate’s last game in charge will be a semi-final.
Given their qualifying campaign, there is a lot of positivity about Scotland, which is a bit of a paradox! However, Scotland’s group is harder than they think. They have the honour of opening the tournament against the Germans in Munich, which will set the tone for their tournament. The Swiss are notoriously difficult to beat, and the Hungarians are my shout for the surprise package. So, despite the optimism, I think Scotland will be on the first flights home.
Embed from Getty ImagesAnd Stephen tends to agree with Chris: When it comes to the Home Nations, I can’t see England getting past the first knock out round. All the hype around this team and being favourites will surely mean the usual let-down. Scotland on the other hand will make the knock out round for the first time in any tournament.
Interesting contrast to Dai’s prediction of England winning.
Embed from Getty ImagesWho will be embarrassed?
The teams I don’t expect much from are Belgium and Croatia. Croatia have some great players but a lot of them are at the tail end of their career, and they are in the group of death. I think they will finish bottom of their group behind Spain, Italy and a tough Albanian side.
Embed from Getty ImagesBelgium have a group which I think is tight to call and Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine will be tough tests. The better players are ageing and whilst De Bruyne is still a world class footballer, he’s not had his best season (by his high standards) and has had his injury issues. We’ve heard that the camp is hardly harmonious and I think they will struggle.
Stephen obviously sees England as the big team to fail. While Chris feels that with 3 teams going through in most groups, the level of jeopardy is majorly reduced and so the chances of a shock are minimal. However, I believe the holders lack the spirit that won them Euro 2020 and will be in for an early exit. And as a bitter Welsh fan, I really hope Poland take a few batterings!
Embed from Getty ImagesClosing
My overriding feeling is that I hope I’m wrong here on almost every level, and long time listeners will know our prediction skills are not the best. Let’s hope that continues. I hope the Scots enjoy the experience even if I don’t wish them well, and I have some good friends in Germany as well as some great memories of a wonderful country. I hope they topple everyone and we are all eating celebratory bratwurst in a month’s time.